Sunday, January 5, 2014

Pressing Your Luck

Of all the things that makes the NFL supreme among sports viewing products, is the fact that falling behind means almost nothing. Sometimes, even falling behind by a lot.

All three early winners trailed at halftime. Which got me to thinking.

I wonder what the typical “comeback rate” is for each of the four major sports. Has anybody ever tried to calculate that?

In football and basketball, there are three different scoring denominations (technically four, if you count the XP in football). So I’m not sure how you would create the “comeback metric” for lack of a better word.

My first thought was to make it based on the multiple of the highest scoring denomination possible. So, a three-goal lead in hockey, or three run lead in baseball, would equate to a 3 TD lead in football.

But that would be stupid. Being down 21 in an NFL game, at ANY point in the game, is almost always a death sentence.

So maybe we could reverse engineer this so called “comeback metric.”

I am pretty sure we (and by “we” I mean, somebody with waayyy more time than me!) could calculate exactly the number of times since the NFL merger teams that trailed by 21 points came back to win the game. We could even break it down by decade, to see if the “mortality rate” of 21-0 has declined as the “passing era” in the NFL gained pre-eminance.

So once we get the verifiable "mortality rate” of being down by 21 in the NFL, we can then use that number (my guess: 6%) and find the similar scoring position of “nearly fatal” in other sports.

So what is the 6% of teams come back and win when trailing by (calculate number) in baseball? Hockey? Basketball?

Oh sure, I hear you snickering. “How in the f*** Czaban, could anyone find all the times a team in basketball came back from being 20 points or more down?

Ummmm. Nerds?

I don’t know. But I think it’s be a neat, cool, perhaps useful statistic to dig out. In other words, at what point are you basically “dead” as a team in a game?

Which brings me to the other most amazingly stupid thing that still persists in the NFL.

Wasted 2nd half timeouts, and clock management.

I won’t belabor what I have written and talked about for years and years now, but you people saw what Andy Reid did on Saturday afternoon.

I am pretty sure I have never, ever, seen a team have the 2 minute warning to get their shit together, and THEN burn a timeout - ANY timeout, much less their FINAL timeout - with the clocked stopped reading 2:00.

Watch this league long enough, you’ll see everything.

It was 4th and 11! Taking a 5 yard penalty makes it 4th and 16. There is no material down-and-distance, available-plays-to-call difference! Alex Smith hit a streaking Dwayne Bowe about 30 yards down the right sideline, and ONE foot too far wide on the boundary to end the game.

Timeouts in the 2nd half are coupons for :40 of game play. I simply don’t believe using one to avoid a delay of game penalty, or because (gasp!) a wide receiver is lined up wrong, is ever worth :40 of game time.

Even when you are rolling, and expect to win going away, as I am sure the Chiefs did.

I felt truly awful for Alex Smith after this game. He lost his #1 running back on the first drive of the game. His backup left later in the 4th. The Chiefs lost two big pieces in Flowers and Houston in the 2nd half.

They had a 38-10 lead, and that corpulent idiot with the mustache and the pithy post-game quip of “the time is yours” couldn’t noodle out a way to win that game.

Disgraceful.

I did love how the networks held a long shot of Reid waddling off the field. Slowly and alone. I wish somebody could have run up and slapped a “Kick Me, I’m Stupid” sign on his back.

With ONE timeout in your pocket, you force the Colts to run TWO honest running plays (where things CAN happen) and agonize over a pass/run choice on 3rd down, and if that’s unsuccessful a PUNT.

In other words, there would have been plenty of tight assholes in blue still left on the sidelines.

And the play calling, my god. Really? This game is what makes me say I could be an “average” play caller in the NFL if given a fully immersive year of training.

So here is a quiz. You are up 38-10 with 13:39 left to play in the game. Do you…

A. Run the ball at least 2x as many times as you pass?
B. Be Andy Reid?

The first series after this mark, really ignited the Colts. It went like this…

First down sack.
Pass.
Pass.
Run.
Disastrous SACK-FUMBLE by lethal predator Robert Mathis.

The following possessions went as follows for dunce cap Reid and the Chiefs.

Run
Run
Pass (INC)
Punt

Pass
Run
Pass (INC)
FG

Pass
Pass
Pass (Scramble)
Pass
Run
Pass (INC)
Pass (INC)
PUNT

But hey, even after this much STUPID, you are STILL up by 10. That’s when the Colts go 12 plays 90 yards for TD, and all of a sudden it’s 41-38.

Yada, yada, yada, and then Andy Reid uses his last timeout coming out of the 2 minute warning.


14 comments:

  1. Czabe, I don't think even the nerds are interested in this one. Muy muy meh!

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  2. On the mark czabe.why don't teams hire a guy just to do clock mant since the coaches seem to have too much going on to get it right

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  3. Herm Edwards had Dick Curl as his "clock coach" b/c he was so bad at managing the clock.

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  4. Once again, vindication for Eagles fans. The talking heads called us stupid ingrates for wanting McNabb gone. "Careful what you with for, Eagles fans!" - Trey Wingo. McNabb was done, and Eagles fans knew it long before the Trey Wingos of the world. Same thing with Andy Reid. Reid was a dick to the local media and fans, but he kissed the national media's ass, so they loved him. Most Eagles fans have known for years that Reid is a big, fat buffoon who can't think on his feet when the game is on the line. Good luck, Chiefs fans. That was vintage Andy Reid. Glad he is your problem now. So to summarize, Eagles fans know a lot more about the Eagles than the jackwagons in the national media. If we tell you that a player or coach sucks, then more than likely, they do.

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  5. Here are all the teams since the merger who trailed by at least 21 at halftime and ended up winning the game: http://bit.ly/KuKngV

    Pro-football-reference can track score margins at the end of quarters but not at any point in the game, which makes your exact request a bit harder. There are people much nerdier than myself who can figure this out though, I'm sure.

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  6. I feel like NBA games are way more volatile scoring wise than NFL games. Teams routinely seem to come back from 20 point deficits. I feel like in any NBA game, any lead at any time is fairly meaningless. Teams always seem to make runs. The NBA seems to have "tweaked" their rules more than any other league to allow for large comebacks and runs. The NFL has changed rules to make passing easier, but they haven't really done anything specifically to encourage comebacks or make them easier.

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  7. All the defense had to do was get one mutha effing stop, one stop and none of this matters, however I do agree, it was a wasted TO.
    Reid took a team that was 2-14 and turned them around to 11-5, I'll take it however this loss almost made me gouge my eyes out.
    As soon as the forced fumble hit the tackle in the head and one perfect bounce into Luck's arms I knew the Chiefs were screwed, destiny was on the Colts side this day. Look at the replay, if it doesn't hit that lineman in the head the ball is bounding around at the 10 yard line and might go the other way for a TD...but I digress...classic defensive choke, stopped calling blitzes and didn't get any pressure on Luck. We got what we deserved.

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  8. The comebacks and really the parity in the NFL these days is starting to get ridiculous. Games are quickly becoming a lot like NBA games where the first 3 quarters don't even matter. This was the first year where I found myself not even watching the game (or running an errand) during the first half of the game because I knew it'd come down to the 4th quarter regardless. That is exactly like the NBA....and I've always argued the NBA should just reduce their games down to 1 or 2 quarters and play more often than twice a week...that'd drum up more interest. The NFL would be even WORSE if it continues its trend toward the NBA style where only the 4th quarter matters and there's only 1 game a week.

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  9. How about the 49ers calling a timeout on their first possession of the game! It's a first half timeout, which isn't as valuable as in the second half, but still is inexcusable.

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  10. http://www.advancednflstats.com/

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  11. Does anyone really believe the Chief's defense that gave up 35 points in the second half would have stopped the colts anyway? Even if the Chiefs do get the miracle stop, the best KC could hope for would be to get the ball back on their own 20 with 20 seconds left since the colts would be punting from around midfield. Has anyone every scored a FG late in the game with 20 seconds left and no timeouts from their own 20? I can't remember such a scenario.

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  12. Congratulations on an amazing turnaround this year, Andy. No Philly connection, but their fans know something we don't. Thought this tribute from a year ago was fitting (referencing clock management, blown 4th qtr leads, "time is yours", etc.).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z447qc4ZRRA

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  13. Football scoring is magical and psychologically confusing like a game of chance. Is a touchdown 7 or 1? I say it's 1. A field goal is .43. When you look at a score board and see yourself up or down by a score of 38 - 10 with 25 minutes to play the numbers look impressive and daunting. 28 looks like a big number until you change your perspective from what we believe about numbers to what is reality. The difference isn't 28, it's 4. The time remaining isn't 25 minutes, it's 42% of the game. Minds in the lead relax with the belief that they are up by TWENTY EIGHT POINTS WITH LESS THAN 2 QUARTERS TO PLAY. Minds in arrears know they are down 4 with nearly half a game to play. Maybe it's mathematically wiser to use all of your downs in the red zone to score touchdowns instead of kicking field goals. 7 is only 1 and not 7.

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  14. That has to be the lamest take I've ever heard Tom. The points don't matter as much as how difficult or easy it is to obtain the points.

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