The Redskins giving up three first round picks and a second rounder for him, is brainless.
And before we go any farther, please stop your silliness people with the argument that is was "only" TWO #1 picks because the Skins and Rams "swapped" first rounders this year.
I mean, really. This is your best argument in favor of such roster malpractice?
Here, let's walk through this slowly: YOU have Robert Griffin III. I have three first round picks and a second rounder. We swap. Now, how much have I "paid" for Robert Griffin III.
Think hard.
The price of Robert Griffin III if you are the Rams, is one first round pick. The price if you are as desperate to sell tickets as Dan Snyder and as floundering without his next Elway as Mike Shanahan, is FOUR TIMES as much.
Even independent football minds have deemed this the single most expensive "move up" in almost 40 years.
Jason Lisk of the Big Lead has an exhaustive history of these type of draft blockbusters. Most are not pretty for the "surrendering" team.
While Michael David Smith of PFT.com focuses in on the two most recent comps, the trades for Eli and Vick.
Now, the second silly argument in favor of this trade, is that the Giants did almost the same thing for Eli Manning, so..... THERE!
Boom, roasted.
Okay, good. You have ONE instance in which it could be argued that such a trade was "worth it." And I will even forgo the reminder that the Chargers STILL got an equivalent QB talent in that deal in Philip Rivers.
Rivers: 63% - 24k yards - 163-78
Manning: 58% - 27k yards - 185-129
The fact remains: even IF Robert Griffin III is EVERY BIT AS GOOD right away as Cam Newton (a high bar), the Redskins are STILL three full good players BEHIND the Panthers in terms of talent acquisition.
They play in the same conference. This is not trivial.
There are reasons why NFL draft picks - especially 1st and 2nd rounders - are so valuable. They are players you can select from a deep pool of fresh talent, for whom you do not need to compete for their services with money like in free agency. Their motivation level is high, because they are looking to someday get that big free agent payday. They are less injured - in a cumulative sense - than players who are already in the league. And they cost a lot less money to your team, in a ruthless hard-cap roster eco-system in which production per dollar against the cap is paramount to success.
Of course, there are risks. The draft remains a crap shoot of uncertainty. Plenty of high picks wash out.
Yet the Redskins have not in any way mitigated against this risk by moving up for RGIII.
He too, is a risk.
Yes, despite the amen-chorus of football experts who have all but declared him a sure-fire superstar for years to come.
Had the Redskins traded this haul of picks for Drew Brees, that would be another story. At least with Brees, you KNOW he can play at a high level. And while you would be getting fewer likely serviceable years from him, there is virtually zero chance Brees would be a bust in burgundy and gold.
It seems like everyone I know getting all excited about this move, are blissfully obtuse to the irony of whom they traded with. The Rams themselves selected a "sure-fire" star at QB in Sam Bradford, who earned offensive Rookie of the Year honors his first season.
The Rams did not spend 4 picks to get Bradford. They spent one.
And yet, the Rams were right back at the top of the draft again this year, thanks to a 2-14 season in which injuries riddled their lineup at various positions.
Lesson: a good quarterback can't cover everything. Depth of talent is crucial.
Imagine how screwed the Rams would be, had they done what Snyder and Shanahan just did!
But hey, what are the chances the Redskins have injuries that decimate the roster next year, or the year after?
Right.
Here's one way to see how stupid and panicked this move really was. The Redskins made no attempt to hide the fact that they wanted to be big players in the Peyton Manning derby. But when Peyton started making his itinerary and Washington was nowhere on it, Shanahan and Co. quickly swung to "Plan B" - RGIII.
So in other words, the franchise had a plan. Either get a 35 year old Hall of Famer coming off 4 neck procedures who is still not fully cleared to play.
Or, spend 3 #1's and a #2 on a hot college prospect.
That's really "charting a course for the future" isn't it?
I need a car, and I have a "plan." I'm either going to buy new Porche, or build my own car from a kit I order on the internet. Either way is cool. But I know what I want.
The other big argument in favor of this move, is purely emotional. It goes something like this... "After 20 years without a franchise quarterback, you have to pay whatever price it takes."
Oh, really?
Why? Because Robert Griffin III is the LAST quote "franchise" quarterback the college game is ever going to produce? Because if the Redskins don't make the playoffs this year, the NFL has announced the franchise will be folded forever?
Why?
The answer is simple. The owner is desperate. The coach is desperate. And when the fan base is also desperate, you have fertile conditions for "stupid."
Look, nobody is saying this kid doesn't look, sound and feel like anything but an absolute sensation. He does. He's as fast as Michael Vick, yet bigger, with perhaps a more accurate arm, and way better software and leadership skills.
I flat out love him.
But I would not have paid this much for him. My limit was 2 #'1s and a #2. Which I know, is close. But that was a really "stretched" limit of tolerance. The third #1 would have absolutely been a deal breaker to me.
Many of you asked me - indignantly, I might add - on Twitter over the weekend "well, what was YOUR plan at QB then!"
Answer: don't go on a two-year, time-wasting, patience-testing, teeth-gnashing, draft pick-squandering mis-adventure on McNabb, Beck and Grossman.
Undaunted some of you said: "Well buddy, too bad there's no time machine! NOW, I demand your 'solution' to our QB problem!"
Sorta unfair to ask ME, to bail out Mike "I Know The Position" Shanahan after he ran the franchise into a QB dead end. I mean, the guy doesn't even have ONE decent prospect on the roster after two full years and two full drafts. That's remarkable malpractice for a coach making $7 million a year.
But if you want my preferred options at QB instead of this.... well, here's a quick list.
1. Matt Flynn and keep all your picks
2. Draft a "Tier 2" QB in the late 1st/2nd (possible trade down)
3. Wait 'til next year.
Yeah, I know. Wait 'til next year. Interesting concept. There WILL be a next year. It's like this owner, and this franchise never thinks "next year" is worth waiting for, or building for, or that it will ever come.
The fact it's been 20 years since the Redskins have had a decent QB, doesn't make me feel more urgent. It makes me feel more patient. If we're talking 4 picks for 1, then shit, what's ONE more year?
Some will say, if Griffin is the real deal, then all will be well. You'll be glad you spent the picks. Well sure, in the abstract. It would be like saying if I bet a year's salary on "red" at the roulette wheel and it hits, that my "investment" will have "paid off."
The dumbest thing you can say is that teams desperate for a franchise quarterback, must "pay any price" to get one. Really? "Any" price? Would 5 #1 picks have been as sensible to mindless league drones like Adam Schefter? (Shocker: Shanahan's preferred source for leaks, approves the deal.)
Of course not.
So we have established then, that EVERYTHING in life, has a proper "price."
I think the Redskins have dearly overpaid, and with the worst money you can spend: draft picks.
And unlike baseball, where you can pay a surly right fielder like Jayson Werth $126 million guaranteed to hit .232 (hey, he might pick it up) the ripples of this mistake never make it out of the Lerner family financial net worth portfolio. Werth's sucking, has absolutely no long term negatives on the Nationals on field future. There is no cap, and you did not surrender any draft picks for him.
The downside to RGIII is that if he's a bust, you are ruined.
Ruined.
I would never, ever, ever make that bet as an NFL owner.
If Robert Griffin III turns out to be every bit as good as fellow NFC starters Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, or Cam Newton, the Redskins are STILL three quality players behind all of those teams who either used just 1 pick, or in some cases NONE to acquire those "franchise" QB's.
Because that's the price they just paid.
You never get those picks back. And you can never have enough talent.
But for an owner who just had to rip out 10,000 seats to avoid blackouts, and a Super Bowl winning coach whose "legacy" is vanishing before his eyes like the McFly family photo in "Back to the Future" you are prone to doing some really reckless and stupid things.
Or if not stupid, certainly selfish.
For Snyder, it buys him buzz, and helps move the floudering season ticket sales effort and club seats. He NEEDED this, in the worst way.
And for Shanahan, it buys him - if nothing else - time. Worst case scenario, Shanny will preach "patience" if this is a slow ramp up to excellence.
It works for them, at least.
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ReplyDeleteCan't say Amen enough to this. Let me pre-empt the fools who will say "we have $45 mil in cap space so we can get talent there" with a trip down memory lane: Deion Sanders, Adam Archuletta, Antwan Randle El, Derrick Dockery, Albert Haynesworth, Mike Carrier, Bruce Smith, the list goes on. Some of those names would make it in the top 5 Worst Free Agent Busts EVER. If this franchise were run efficiently, that 40 million would be used on retaining homegrown players worthy of contract extensions. Except the two homegrown guys whose contracts are up this year (Fred Davis and LaRon Landry) are one more positive test away from sitting out a whole year and crippled by injuries, respectively. I feel bad for RG3. I really do.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deletethats interesting because all of those free agent pick ups were under a different GM and coach. and if you looked at the pieces we got in FA last year, there is a SIGNIFICANT difference in drive and leadership from those players than the players you so conveniently mentioned. We have made a lot of mistakes in the past, and for all i know (and everyone else for that matter) this could be one too. but don't automatically chalk this up to a loss before anything pans out. RG3 could be great, and czabe is right, we will never get those picks back. But there are 6 OTHER ROUNDS in the draft, where you can pick up role-players and depth. and with SMART free agent signings, and not paying out the ass to under-performing old talent, you make up for the lost first rounders. I am pretty sure that shanny and co. are the same group of people that turned 6 draft picks into TWELVE last year, that everyone met with praise... so just because they actually traded up for once they are stupid and suck at this business we call football? Sorry, but i am not so quick to jump on the 'loser mentality' bandwagon.
DeleteNice Tony!
DeleteInteresting read and you make some valid points.
ReplyDeleteBut I think they're damned if they do, damned if they don't
I still think they had to pull the trigger. Because who else is out there? Another season of Rexy? Beck? Orton? Flynn is as much of a gamble (albeit it one without losing picks).
Draft experts seem to rate Griffin almost as high as Luck now.
Also, I think they have been patient. They passed on QBs in the last draft (Ponder, Gabbert) and they haven't overspent like previous regimes, such as the disaster that was Albert, and Shanny and Bruce got rid of those mistakes as soon as they could.
Their free agency has been conservative since they've been in DC, the McNabb trade aside (which everyone thought was a good idea at the time - who knew he'd bomb like he did?)
I find it frustrating. If they'd signed Manning, plenty of people would be saying "same old Redskins, spending the big bucks and going for the quick fix with other franchises' old, unwanted players" (even if the unwanted player is one of the greatest to ever play the game).
But they haven't done that - they've made an attempt to get what everyone has said for years they need. A franchise QB. Will Griffin be that man? Who knows but they've had the courage to make the decision.
There's risk with every deal. They could have signed Manning and his neck has a setback. They could have signed Flynn and found out he is a two-game wonder after all.
Having a plan in place for a QB will also help them attract free agents, which is key (they did a great job of the cap the past two seasons). Would Garcon or Jackson or whoever come if it's Rexy or Beck throwing to them?
So yes, it's a crazy price to pay, but is it that much more crazy then the Falcons giving up all those picks for Jones, a wide receiver?
100% agreed! Czabe, back up off the ledge bro.
DeleteCzabe, is another journalist who's job it is to be negative. If he wrote positive columns then he would be out of a job. 3 years from now (MARK THESE WORDS) he will be saying how wonderful the pick was and that he knew it all along.
DeleteNice article Czabe. Very good points. The currency called draft picks is gone. I too think they paid too much and was initially thinking they should trade down and scoop Weedon. They could always acquire more draft picks in the future but the damage is done. If they get a few good FA pickups this season and next, I will count those as replacing draft picks. Also, if they can find a gem within the late rounds that will count as well.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is that it is a done deal. Let's hope it works. If it doesn't than I think Shanny is out of options and Snyder will be back to square one as well.
It is all in for all three of them (Snyder, Allen and Shanny).
PS - I do think RGIII will be a great player though.
Your last statement sums up all the negative views out there. After posting a negative view, you said "I do thing RG3 will be a great player though" - if that is the case then the trade will be GREAT as well, right? Everyone seems to believe he will be great, well that is not going to happen on another team - if he is to be great then it will mean the Redskins are potentially GREAT as well. People do not have a negative view of this trade. They have a negative view of SNYDER. PERIOD. No matter what he does, who he picks up, who he signs - the media will NEVER LET IT GO. They alwsys will Snyder Bash. It is really quite ridiculous and transparent. RG3 could turn out to be a Super Bowl quarterback and jounalists like CZabe will still find a way to bash Snyder for picking him.
DeleteThe point is that you can think RG3 will be great and you can also think it was a bad deal. The two are not mutually exclusive. What if the Skins had traded 6 first round picks and 6 second round picks to get RG3? Would you still say that was a good deal? At some point you would probably agree that it was a bad deal - no matter how good RG3 turns out to be. So we only differ on how many picks = bad deal. There are a lot of people who think that giving up that many picks is a bad deal even if RG3 turns out to be awesome.
DeleteI agree a bit, but I also am excited about the prospect. A franchise qb (here's to hoping RGIII becomes one) is worth any price. They still have 18 picks the next 3 years instead of 21 and they can still get more through other trades and stuff. EVERY pick is valuable these days, provided the guy making the picks is good at it. I respect your opinion Czabe, but I will be happy with RGIII as well...
ReplyDeleteI am Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. Waking up every offseason to another absurd deal by the Redskins (See McNabb, Haynesworth, Archeletta, etc... I would run out of available character space if I listed each one). I thought the spell was officially broken last year with the moving down in the draft to acquire more picks. But alas, no. Some of Vinny’s blunders don’t look so bad compared to this one. The Redskins dearly overpaid to move up 4 spots in the draft. Four spots is worth an early 2nd rounder, or next years 1st round pick at best!!! It is not like the Redskins are one player away from being a consistent playoff team, much less a title contender. The Redskins are probably “one player away” at each position on the football field, except for maybe punter (The only position that probably doesn’t need an upgrade). They could have upgraded FOUR positions on the field with this trade over the next 3 years. Unfortunately, this is what you get when you have a GM running the front office that is just a puppet of the coach or the owner. I am sure Allen was busy at Kinkos making flyers for the next Alumni picnic or designing a new pants and shirt combination to roll out the first game with Snyder, while Shanahan was making the deal. The offseason officially hasn’t started so I am sure the Skins haven’t finishing making foolish moves just as I am starting to hear Sonny and Cher singing “I Got you babe” again in my head. Nevertheless, I will still be rooting for RG3 and the Skins from my couch or the nearest bar.
ReplyDeleteThe need for Czabe to keep a chronically contrarian viewpoint in anything Redskins-related has led to this manifesto, as illogical as it is long and incoherent. First, while defiant and tidy, the notion that our cost IS, in fact, THREE first rounders is still flat out wrong. Yes, WE will have Robert Griffin, presumably, on draft night. And yes - for about 45 minutes after that selection - the Rams will own three first rounders and a second rounder of ours. But only for 45 minutes. The Rams will choose a college blue chipper with that choice - Kailil, Blackmon, Claiborne, etc - all carrying the same inherent risk that we took in selecting Griffin. Without digging deep into "point values" and other bogus math to pad the argument, that 2012 first rounder is - by very definition - a swap. The Rams dont get to carry the pick around in their pocket like a golden egg that they can show off 10 years from now and talk about the day they fleeced the Redskins. When that particular pick is swapped, the risks associated with any Draftee is swapped. Will you still view the deal in the same light if RG3 makes the Pro Bowl while Blackmon is arrested and/or tears an ACL? If you start with one apple, and pledge three, your net cost is two apples - by any Math, in any arena, in any Country. Period. And furthermore, to speak of "players" as though they all have unilateral value - with no regard to the fact that a franchise QB in this league may now be the first and foremost ingredient to actually winning - is horribly misleading. Is there any doubt what you would blog about if the Skins stayed thrifty and acquired a free agent with considerably less upside than Griffin (i.e. Flynn), only to watch him throw three picks in the opener? Thanks, but I think I will trust the opinion of current league executives and former GM's who count the deal as pricy, but 100% neccessary, for this franchise.
ReplyDeleteYou are quite literally comparing apples to draft picks....the cost for RG3 is 3 first rounders and a high second rounder, or 4 picks. The Redskins drafting RG3 means only one thing....Tanenhill will end up being a hall of famer..
DeleteIt continues to boggle my mind how people can actually argue that the only thing we traded for RG3 was 2 first round picks and 1 second round pick. If the Cowboys traded Tony Romo and 3 offensive linemen to the Packers for Aaron Rogers we wouldn't say that the Cowboys got Rogers for 3 linemen would we? According to the logic of most people we would discount the Romo-Rogers part of the deal because we just "swapped" them. The bottom line is that we gave up 3 first round picks and 1 second round pick and received 1 first round pick in return.
DeleteHere's the next story to watch out of Redskins Park...
ReplyDeleteThe Skins just mortgaged their future to draft what they think is a once in a generation QB.
The Skis' OC is also the coach's son and both Shanahans have a history of making QBs fit their system rather than adapting their system to fit the talents of the QB.
RG III is a unique talent. How are the Shanahans going to handle him? It seems to me the smart move is to build your offense around RG III, especially since you still have to acquire the personnel anyway (WR, another RB...) If the Shanahans try for even a second to make RG III to fit their scheme then it's time to cut bait and fire them both.
You know this is the last hurrah for Shanahan because if he cannot make it work then all he has on his resume is 2 Elway won super Bowls and a much longer history of Griesie/Plummer/McNabb/Grossman/Beck
Dan Snyder can't get out of his own way, and I guess no one in the organization can stop him. Great pick, but iditotic price they paid. Everyone that reads what the skins will get will start the article with "wow, great pick", and as they read on will go "what the hell are theyn thinking"?
ReplyDeleteCzabe once again you have a cynical and not well thought out point of view. We really did not give up that much for RG III. We traded first round picks this year and lost a second in 2012. As a result we still have 7 picks this year. We also have 6 picks in 2013 and 2014. What exactly have we given up for a potential top tier QB. Sometimes you have to take that leap in a effort to improve your team. Management has been preparing the team for this opportunity to jump up ever since they took control. They have been able to create a lot of salary cap space to attract (the right) free agents. They have also created a solid core defensively. This is not a Dan Snyder move, this is what Shannahan needed to do so he can take this team to another level. I would rather make this move than wait on Ryan Tannehill to develop with very little experience at QB. This is a move that will bring excitement and more importantly wins to our Washington Redskins. Please dont jump on board when the band is striking Hail to the Redskins more than twice a game.
ReplyDeleteI agree that RG3 will be good. But you have the math wrong on the trade. According to you "we traded first round picks this year and lost a second in 2012". In actuality we gave up 3 first round picks and a second round pick.
DeleteHaters...! What would you have done? Be specific, please. Don't rip someone for a choice, when you do not have a plan. Its easy to say someone's choice was bad, or won't work out in the end, but what would you have done?
ReplyDeleteFor the record, this is a win now league. And might I remind you the Skins haven't won scrap in over 20 years. They have also tried before to draft QBs without trading away the kitchen sink and what did that get them?
Also, if I remember correctly, they have used the draft wisely historically when they keep their picks (i.e, Jansen, Samuels, Champ, Taylor, etc.), but it hasn't netted them anything....why? No QB....period.
So like it, love it, or hate it, give them some credit. Had they gotten Manning, you would be critical. If they had gone after Weeden, or Tennehill you would have found fault. Had they scooped up Orton and waiting until next year's draft with no guarantees...yep, you would have bitched.
Point is, Danny boy and company are getting bashed by critics like you for the sake of your negativity.
How about for once you shut up and let this one play out?
AMEN! That's what bothers me the most about our fans, we're NEVER satisfied and always bitching about moves. I'm elated that we have the 2nd overall pick...why? Because we will draft either Luck or RG3, QB talents we won't see again in the future drafts we gave up. So in effect, we went all in and took the best prospects at QB available in the draft, with last season's multiple picks and this year's $40-mil cap space to address other needs.
DeleteRedskins fans are the best. Year after year they trot out the same sorry-ass team, continue to make horrible decisions at every level of management, and yet you still have the kool-aid drinkers who get apoplectic at the thought of someone criticizing their beloved franchise. You guys bring such a smile to my face.
ReplyDeleteFor me the bottom line is either you build according to a plan such as using the draft wisely or you jump at stuff in hopes it cures what ails ya. The Skins, as usual, are doing the latter which is sad because it looked like they were finally on track to rebuild properly. Look, is RG3 a great kid and athlete? Sure, of course. But the history of QBs rising to be NFL stars says they usually aren't 1st or 2nd picks or even 1st rounders. ShanDan have forgotten their plan and hopefully won't suffer for straying from it.
ReplyDeleteWhen the Skins play Russian Roulette, they like to put 5 bullets in. It's extra-BOLD.
ReplyDeleteIf you think that's a smart move if they happen to survive, then go back to listening to the soothing homerism of Kevin Sheehan or Chris Russell.
Czabe, i feel you on many levels but this one you're off base.
ReplyDeleteMcNabb was a horrible deal I thought in the beginning. Anytime a division rival will trade its QB within the division, red flags should go up all over the place. Plus he was a friggin' eagle. I never cheered for a TD that involved him that year but thats another story.
As far as last year goes, other than CAM, I didn't like any of those QB's and favored loading up on draft picks. I didn't agree with turning the keys over to Rex-Beck either. Gabbert looks terrible in Jacksonville. Dalton looks good but average at best.
This move gives us a bonafied play maker, a play extender, someone who hopefully makes the players around him better. Is it any wonder how all of the WRs that play with Brees, Brady, both Mannings, Rogers and even Romo look great? Is it great scouting? yes possibly. More probably its because the QB's are so great and prepared and accurate that they make the receivers better. They make the O-line better with their ability to release the ball quick, knowledge of the offense and overall playmaking ability. That to me is worth 3 #1 picks and a #2 ( please stop saying 3 #1's when one was a swap. We swapped #1's this year and gave up a #2 this year and 2 #1's next year and the year after).
With an average QB, you have to be so flawless in other areas to compensate that it is damn near impossible to win consistently(one time I can remember is the 2000 Ravens. Almost happened with the Bears under Rex. Neither of those teams had staying power). But if you have a great QB, you can compensate in other areas because he will have a chance to have a direct outcome on every game because the ball is in his hands half the time. Look at the Packers, Saints, Patriots and Giants this year. They were all incredibly flawed but because they had great QBs, they can overcome non existent running games and bad defenses and produce the best record in the league, most passing yards ever, 5th super bowl appearance and 2nd Super Bowl respectively.
I love draft picks and I love young players but I will give them up again at a chance for an elite QB.
You cant have it both ways where you say he may not pan out. Well the draft picks we gave up may not pan out either. You don't know either way but you can't be hopeful about current sophomores and juniors (2013 and 2014 #1 picks) and not the guy that had a great year on the field last year and is scouted by everyone as a damn near can't miss.
As for Shanny, I'm not sold totally either. He did bungle the QB situation with McNabb and last year (not much was available really) but he did clear lots of dead weight and helped with the cap. Last years draft was a good one as well. I think this offense will fit RGIII. I like our running game with Royster and Helu (Royster is the better back I believe). Where he will make his money will be in the later rounds this year and next.
Go Skins!!! The "maroon and black" is back baby!!! lol
No, the best argument for making this move is that franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees and we had to do this. Because of our past poor decisions and terrible QB for the past 20 years, this was the only thing we can do given the circumstances. And yes, we actually gave up 2 first rounders and not THREE; we have a ton in cap space to make some moves; and if the Skins didn't do this, cynics like you would be bashing the organization for not making this move. I don't like to assume, but I will in this scenario based on your extreme view on this subject.
ReplyDeleteAgain, getting a franchise QB and giving up TWO first rounders and a second rounder isn't the end of the world when you look at our cap space; other draft picks we have; and the fact that this kid is legit.
I look forward to seeing you being proven wrong and eating every single word you wrote in this article.
Qman2002 - you are spot on, 100%. Czabe, I love you, listen to you most mornings, but you are off-base on this one. The Skins did have to do something. If this kid turns into a Manning, Brady, Brees or Rodgers, he would be worth 5 #1 draft picks - and we only gave up 2 and and 2nd rounder (yes, do you math, you are wrong, it is 2, not 3). Great QB's hide flaws and allow teams to get players to help their teams in later rounds than round 1. Great QB's hold EVERY player on their team accountable for greatness, and those players respond. Great QB's lift the playing level of every player on thier team. We have not had a great QB since Sonny. It is time now for us to attempt to have a great QB. Every draft pick is a wildcard, but this kid has an arm, speed, athleticism, discipline and character. Lets see if this translates in the pro game. I am hoping it does.
ReplyDeleteCzabe, as usual, you read my mind.
ReplyDeleteI have said this once, and I will say it one final time. While the trade officially involves sending three first round picks and a second to the Rams, that is not the COST. The "COST" of this deal is TWO first round picks and a second. The concrete COST will always be a NET number, not gross. I have no idea why this is so difficult to understand. Christ, it's simple accounting.
ReplyDeleteNo matter how you do the math the cost is three #1s (including this year's #6, now a #2) and one #2. Draft picks have intrinsic value. When they are spent, not matter how, that is a cost. In this case, you have no deal if you don't already have the #6 to bargain with. You are spending #6 in order to get into position to spend two additional #1s and one #2. In the reverse case of trading down, like last year, it cost them their higher draft position to acquire lower picks. Like baseball stats, you can satisfy yourself my interpreting them any way you like I guess.
DeleteSimmer down Czabe.
ReplyDeleteYour "solutions" are pathetic, and that type of thinking would keep this franchise in the bottom 3rd of the league.
What's your downside? That if he's a bust, we are "ruined?"
OH NOES!!! WE MIGHT FINISH LAST IN THE NFC EAST AGAIN! HOW EVER WILL WE COPE!?!?!?
"Ruined" is the status quo around here bub.
What a terrible, rambling and idiotic post, Czabe. There's nothing more to add than what has already been said in these comments.
ReplyDeleteI love how so many people say "the Skins HAD TO DO THIS." Ah, no they did not. As the old proverb says "slow and steady wins the race". They had a plan and they now they've ditched it. NE didn't get there over night and they drafted Brady in the 6th round folks. BTW, Joe Gibbs won three SBs with....three different QBs. The knee jerk rationale that you have to go get RG3 is lame. Most good QBs are landed either in a high draft slot without trade ups or more often lower in the draft. You Skins fans may be tired of waiting for the Messiah, but come on. Have faith in a plan for once will ya.
ReplyDeleteYour math is wrong because you started incorrectly. "Lets walk through this slowly, You have RGIII." Incorrect. No one has RGIII. Everyone has PICKS! Team A wants pick 2. Team B has pick 2. Team A and Team B swap. Whats the cost? Nothing. It's free as far as "rounds" are concerned. First for a First. Now, is 2 more valuable than 6? It depends. It's complicated. So, team A wants pick 2. So do a lot of people. Pick 2 to make it a guarantee ends up being very valuable to team A because 3, 4, and 5 might make a move to degrade pick 6's value, and other teams might want to trade to get pick 2 and further degrade pick 6 in team A's eyes. Obvious logic. Lets recap. All that is on the table so far is a swap. Team A wants a player they will never get unless they swap. So, to team A, pick 2 is valuable. Pick 2 isn't as valuable to team B they will get the player they want at 2 or 6. It doesn't matter. So whats in it for team B? There is no need for them to swap with team A unless team A can give them something EXTRA. So, team A gives team B 2 future first round picks in exchange for a swap in position this year. That is the cost. You want to trade positions in the first round for the cost of 2 first round picks in a future draft. Logically, what is hard to understand about this?
ReplyDeleteLets look at your logic. The Redskins give the Rams this years First round pick at number 6, and 2 more future first round picks. But why did they give this to them? OH, to get a first round pick this year at position 2. So wait. Lets do the math. 3 picks in exchange for 1 pick can be expressed as 3-1. This = 2. Interesting. How did we get 2, and you got 3? Because in your fantasy world, the Rams have already used their pick on RGIII and the Redskins have not spent theirs. Illogical. You also want to be emotionally negative because you think you know better. Well, you don't. You're not an NFL scout or coach or anything remotely affiliated with an NFL team. You are a radio host. Why is no one beating down your door to be their next talent evaluator? Because anyone can talk about this all day, but very few have what it takes to make the decisions. Ultimately, only 1 team each year gets to gets bragging rights for the decisions they made. Everyone else gets back to the drawing board. It's an elite group, and the rest of us can only pretend to know better.
OK I think what is being missed here is that there is a "cost" to using a draft pick to trade up or down. If you use a #6 to trade up, then, as odd as it may sound, you have incurred the cost of not using the #6 as intended, but rather have decided to spend it in order to spend even more picks to get into a better position. This is not a free "swap". It is a leveraged moved based on value. #2 has more value than #6, intrinsically. No one would just swap places without asking for more in exchange. It cost you #6 just to have the conversation. Cost is cost no matter how you want to rationalize the moves made. Trading down would cost you #6 in order to get several lower picks because #6 has it's intrinsic higher value.
Delete3-1=2 no matter how you want to spin it. There are 4 first round picks involved. The skins have 3 and the rams have 1. The Skins give the Rams 3, and the Rams give the skins 1. That means the net cost is 2 first round draft picks. PERIOD. If you want to speak "Intrinsically" you can say the redskins payed 2 future first round draft picks to increase the value of the current years first round draft pick. They did not spend this years pick.
DeleteOK, so if "They did not spend this years pick" then they'd still have another first round pick by that logic. No matter how you cut it, it cost the Skins 3 #1s and one #2 in order to get RG3. You're trying use net cost as the real cost which is faulty logic. The #6 pick has value and therefore is a cost of the total deal. The cost is the #6 plus added picks. Here's a better way to look at it. Let's say the Rams had already drafted RG3, but already have Bradford and like him a whole lot. So they say "OK, we'll take offers". The Skins then show up and say "We love RG3 and will offer three #1 picks and a #2 pick." In this case the only thing that changed is the Rams physically have RG3 not just the rights to draft him. Cost is cost.
Deletetoo much yapping. too many words in these posts:
ReplyDeletein this 'modern' NFL which I arbitrarily define:
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Dilfer and Brad Johnson are the only 2 "non-elite" QBs to win the Super Bowl in the last 18 years. Get a damn QB. fill in the rest...
I agree the player was right, the price was too steep. Now we're dependent on free agents to fill in the gaps. This draft is deep in lineman. My move would have been to try and trade back like last year and draft OL. There is no depth. There are quite a few young QB's coming out next year that will get the same pub as RG3. The Redskins won 3 SB's without a "franchise QB" because they had one of the best OL's in history. Peyton was so good in getting rid of the ball, no one really saw how bad their line was until this season. How many sacks have the Redskins given up over the last 10 years? You need to address the OL 1st and foremost. If you can't trade back, take the best player on your draft board to fill an immediate need, which this team has lots of. I'm a lifelong fan and former season ticket holder, I want to hang new SB pics on my wall instead of having to remember back to how nice it was to win constantly. We're still making up for 10 years of mis-management. It takes time, but after last year's draft, I felt we were finally on the right track. If they can get the pieces to protect RG3, I will get onboard, until then, I'm glad he's fast because he'll be running for his life.
ReplyDeleteoops and
ReplyDeleteSuper Bowl 45: Aaron Rodgers
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning
suspect unti that one I suppose ;)
make that 20 years.
Yeah, Phillip Rivers is great! How many AFC Title Games? Super Bowls? RINGS? You are an idiot. So glad to be a Giant fan. Real fans, real teams, and a REAL QB because my organization went up to get who they believed in. You can have all the yards and TD's you want. Phillip Rivers is NO Eli, and NEVER will be. Idiot. You MUST have a QB in this league. Does not matter what you have to do to get him, just get him. Peyton ALONE is worth 7 wins, Colts proved that. You have no clue. Become a Giants beat reporter for a few years, and you will see what it's like to be in a Championship environment. Something you know nothing about.
ReplyDeleteLet's look at most of the Super Bowl winning QBs over the past 20 years were drafted:
ReplyDeleteAaron Rogers - 24th - Round 1
Drew Brees - 32nd - Round 2
Ben Rothlisberger - 11th - Round 1
Tom Brady - 199th - Round 6
Brad Johnson - 227th - Round 9
Trent Dilfer - 6th - Round 1
Kurt Warner - Undrafted
Brett Favre - 32nd - Round 2
So, either do your homework and draft well without spending any additional picks or spend future picks and hope you hit a home run.
Eli Manning - Round 1
DeletePayton Manning - Round 1
Understood, we all know that. And Troy Aikman was overall #1. Point is that 8 of the Super Bowl winning QBs in the past 20 years responsible for 10 of them were much further down the draft line. Except Trent Dilfer who everybody sees as a joke, but was drafted 6th overall. Eli and Elway wound up in NYC and Denver by virtue of refusing to play in San Diego and Baltimore so those were not swap-ups in the draft to get them. So, bottom line is that no team has drafted up in the order in the last 20 years to get a Super Bowl winning QB. Good luck.
DeleteThe king of "smarm" strikes again!
ReplyDeletePoint taken mackmor - but you're asking the Redskins to do homework and draft well!? haha.
ReplyDeletegood luck with that. and some of those were lighting in a bottle lucky. except the Pats & Brady :) they alwayy draft well.
bottom line - I'm desperate like the skins. it sucks watching a team with a mediocre QB. maybe the shana-hi & allen WILL draft well in the lower rounds and strike lightning w/ some lineman or a WR. desperation leads to delusion :(
ReplyDeleteCzabe,
ReplyDeleteGood articles. Good points. However, the bottom line is that they had to do something.
Was it poor planning/drafting that got us into this mess? Yes. Do I wish we didn't have to give up so many draft picks? Yes.
We have sucked for so long something has to give. Yes, they are all in for RG3. My response: About f*cking time. Lead, follow or get out of the way. I would rather them place all the chips on RG3 and see what happens vice spending another year waiting for next year to rebuild.
Beat Army!
Czabe,
ReplyDeleteYou need to find another team b/c no matter what gets done with management and the organization you are damaged goods that can't see any positive. You're like the girlfriend who has been cheated on and can't trust the guy no matter how well he behaves. In fact, the whole crew- Andy, Kevin et al, you guys need to go. I feel badly listening to the pain in your voices when covering the Skins. We could win the Superbowl next year and you and Andy would be at the parade complaining about how long it took or that we only won one. Please research what Cleveland was willing to pay for that pick. We were two spots behind them and had to out-bid them. We paid market-price for him and we didn't create that price like you think. If we were two spots ahead and Cleveland was in #6, then we probably would have paid what you wanted us to pay. If we paid what you wanted to pay at #6 then we don't get him and we have just another terrible year with no QB. It was Hail Mary time...it's been 20 years of 1st round picks and no wins. Kudos to them for trying something huge.
What really stuck out in this rant was Czabe taking shots at yet another NFL reporter. Czabe, do you just hate every journalist who's more popular than you?
ReplyDeleteYou can go around and around on this forever, the bottom line is, if RG2 comes out and performs well no one will ever complain about the next two years missing draft pick...BUT, if he doesn't you'll hear "they should have waited" "they mortgaged their future" "Shananhan has to go" "they didn't groom him" Blah Blah Blah. I am a long time Redskins fan and I will say this, Snyder and Shanahan have played their hand, so they better make damn sure they let this kid mature and do whatever it takes to bring him along the right way. Hopefully he won't be a bust. But let's at least make the team better through patience and a little moneyball with the lower round draft picks...lol
ReplyDeleteTerrific stuff. To Dave, how can you not be entirely cynical of the Redskins (mis)management over the years? Of course we should be hard on them, because they are almost always wrong. I love RG3, but if he is anything less than a star, we got worked in this trade. Think about if we had made this trade 3 years ago. No Trent Williams, Kerrigan, and Jenkins. Just saying.
ReplyDeleteI would argue that the true "cost" of RGIII is not the 4 picks you're actually paying, but it's the marginal picks over and above what everyone agrees is a "fair" deal.
ReplyDeletePretty much everyone would jump at this deal for 2 1sts and 1 2nd, so the real "cost" of the deal is 1 first round pick. That is the pick that you're "giving up" that could have been used for a defensive end or left tackle down the road. But at 2 1sts and 1 2nd, no one would say that "you're setting the franchise back for years." In the end, the only thing that you're really giving up is that one extra 1st round pick.
But remember, if it was 3 picks plus Orakpo, people might be sqwaking, so remember that one additional 1st round pick can be a very meaningful amount.
Sorry Czabe but to compare the decision making of the Allen/Shanahan regime to the Vinny circus is not credible. As proven by last year's draft they know how to build this team. There's no way to gloss over the mistake they made with McNabb but no one hits on every move. Another year with a make-shift QB situation was not tolerable. I give them credit for being decisive. No Peyton, fine execute Plan B. Pls let's stop the Danny bashing, yes he's made mistakes but he does whatever he thinks best to build a winner. Let's let this group of football men have the chance to build it for him. We (including Snyder) were totally abused by putting confidence in Vinny. Take a breath Czabe.
ReplyDelete