Wednesday, February 10, 2010

2011 Super Bowl Odds & Notes


Now that the NFL has been put to bed for the year, is it too early to start dreaming?

Hell, no!

Here are your odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV, courtesy of Bodog.com.

My notes on some of these numbers, to follow.




13-2 Indianapolis Colts
8-1 San Diego Chargers
10-1 New England Patriots
10-1 New Orleans Saints
11-1 Pittsburgh Steelers
12-1 Dallas Cowboys
12-1 Green Bay Packers
12-1 Minnesota Vikings
16-1 Philadelphia Eagles
20-1 Baltimore Ravens
20-1 New York Giants
25-1 New York Jets
25-1 Tennessee Titans
30-1 Atlanta Falcons
30-1 Cincinnati Bengals
35-1 Arizona Cardinals
35-1 Chicago Bears
35-1 Houston Texans
40-1 Carolina Panthers
45-1 Miami Dolphins
45-1 San Francisco 49ers
45-1 Seattle Seahawks
50-1 Denver Broncos
50-1 Jacksonville Jaguars
50-1 Washington Redskins
100-1 Buffalo Bills
100-1 Cleveland Browns
100-1 Detroit Lions
100-1 Kansas City Chiefs
100-1 Oakland Raiders
100-1 St. Louis Rams
100-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

So who do I like at these prices?

Who I Don't Like At All...

Saints (10-1) - On paper, this team has all it needs to return. Emotionally, however, teams like this rarely summon that motivation to repeat.

Patriots (10-1) - The defense just isn't good enough anymore, and the lack of commitment to the run is troubling.

Chargers (8-1) - One word. Norv. 'Nuff said.

Jets (25-1) - Sanchez due for a sophomore slump, and he wasn't even that good this year as a rookie.

Who I Do Like:

Vikings (25-1) - Favre will torment them, but probably return. Even if he doesn't, I think Chilly and Co. have a viable "Plan B" (McNabb) and the rest of the team is loaded.

Ravens (20-1) - A tough play given they live and Brady and Manning's neighborhood, but this team played the 2nd weekend of the playoffs last year.

Titans (25-1) - Who's their QB? Good question. I don't care. With Chris Johnson and Jeff Fisher, I like them at this longshot price.

Pittsburgh (11-1) and Dallas (12-1) - I know no team has ever played the SB in their home stadium, and the Cows could stay home at "JerryWorld" if it happens. As for Pittsburgh, there's good value here for a fundamentally sound team.

One more thing....

You will likely see somebody like Danny Sheridan in USA Today list the bottom feeder teams at 10,000-1 or longer. This makes for good newspaper fodder, but no real sports book will take a bet at that price, even for a buck. There's simply too much exposure, in case something radical happens this offseason. Thus, 100-1 is about all you'll get on scrub teams, at any reputable book.

That said, if you gave me the Lions or Raiders at 1 Million - to - 1, I would say: "Give me the one, you take the million side."

And it would be the easiest, no-stress dollar I've ever made.

5 comments:

  1. Who wouldnt like the Vikings at 25-1 when your list has them at 12-1??? Thats a no brainer.

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  2. Dolphins, ba-bee! The Tuna is going to get things rolling at some point, his modus operandi is pretty ironclad.

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  3. I don't see how getting McNabb makes the Vikings a Super Bowl contender. The guy plays tight in big games. Always has. I'm an Eagles fan, and I've seen it too many times. I used to be an unwavering supporter of McNabb and Reid, but I have lost all faith. I can't see either of them ever winning a Super Bowl. I'd put the Vikings at 100-1 if they get McNabb. The guy is a whack-job.

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