Friday, March 29, 2013
"Mr. X" Releases His Pre-Season MLB Winners
Granted: you have to wait all spring, summer, and into fall to get paid. Granted: he only "releases" two winners. But if like money, and don't like to "gamble"... then I suggest you pay attention. Here goes...
PS: You can follow him on Twitter at @justcallmemrx.
13 years on Czabe show, and 77% clip. I feel a bit like Brandon Lang, and I don’t know how to stop this madness! Oh, the pressure to win. I can’t raise the % without a perfect year, but it can always go south.
I have a good story about an “early year” of this, that might be better than just baseball talk J (in 2001, when I “released” my top play at end of our Calcutta), this guy grabbed a phone and called in $5k AGAINST me. Right in my face – in front of all. Then he said, in the immortal words of Vito Corleone, “it’s not personal, it’s business”. He said, “nobody can keep winning every year” (and I had taken the same Oakland A’s OVER that was my #1 the year before. He assumed I was being a “fan” and not a handicapper. I was no fan. They went over the 88 so easy – and won 102. It was the “moneyball” movie year – but when I watched the movie, they somehow left me out of it.
General observation: Never seen such “bunching” of numbers. Usually the top teams are around 94-95, but this year there’s a cluster around 89-90. It’s tempting to take the 2 best teams OVER, since somebody always flirts with 100, and it ought to be Detroit and Washington. But I won’t. There’s no room there for an easy win. I do like them as best teams though.
General rule 2: if most of your plays are OVERS, then you are probably a fan and not a good handicapper. EVERYONE is optimistic and if things “break right” you go over. All the teams that go “under” have injuries and “off years”. DUH. I only like a couple teams OVER, I usually go UNDER or “pass”.
Two best plays:
1. Cleveland over 77. They quietly got much better. Their division sucks with only 1 decent team (Det). CWS is way overrated and performed well above expectations last year. They will be under .500. KC is getting the annual “over” hype, but they just never get there. The Twins may contest the Astros for worst record. Cleveland should be an over and the other’s weaknesses make it a top play. I see them getting to 85 and even battling for the extra WC slot.
2. Toronto UNDER 90. Yep, when odds first came out, the Jays and Nats were “co-fav” to win the WS. They made the most moves in offseason and that draws attention. But, every time I look at their 25 man roster, I see a .500 team – so I’m against the grain here. They need excellent years from their strong SP to do better than that. They won’t ALL do it. The division is stronger than most think, and 3 or 4 teams can go OVER, but it won’t be the Jays.
You probably should stop there. Take the 2-0 and call it a year.
Yeah, I know most can’t. So here’s some snicky’s:
1. The ONLY teams “over” are Mets, Cubs and TB. If you are playing any other teams OVER, you don’t have Mr X’s blessing. Sure many teams will go over – but playing any other teams Over,…..you may win, but well, it’s ALMOST like GAMBLING. J
2. Next best play (#3) is White Sox under 81. Although whatever I’d put in on CWS under, it makes sense to roll it onto Clev over. CWS won’t get to .500
3. Lean to unders on ATL (87.5) and STL (87).
4. Finally – every computer model picks Hou OVER 59.5. I don’t. I think they lose 110 and that means closer to 50. I think missing in most projections is that they are in AL and not only overmatched, but nearly every day they face a “new pitcher”. It is possible that they will be an “underdog” in about 150 games this year. Not sure I’ve seen that before.
Division winners – with value
1. Only dog with value is TB at about 5 or 6 to 1.
2. Others are mostly chalk this year, Tigers, Nats and Reds are solid and Angels and Dodgers likely to win. A’s, Red Sox, Giants are best long shots, but while could come close, won’t get there.
Det and Nats in WS.
Strasburg and Verlander in game 7, sounds like a collision course to me....