Picking an NFL team to win the Super Bowl before the season is hard enough, because the league is so wonderfully, indecipherably unpredictable.
And well, injuries.
And those f***ing refs.
But picking which teams have absolutely no shot in hell, is rather easy. Nowadays, just pick any team that has basically nothing good going on at QB and that's your list.
It's a QB League, in a QB World, and the days of hitting an "inside straight" with an average QB are over. (Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer). Even just getting INTO the Super Bowl with a so-so trigger man are just about done. (Rex Grossman, Rich Gannon, Jake Delhomme, Chris Chandler)
Nine of the last 10 Superbowls have been won by guys named: Roethlisberger, Manning (both), Brees, Brady or Rodgers. (Flacco is the 10th. And let's not debate ol' UniBrow now, okay? Thanks.)
Those are all ACE pilots under that increasingly complex glass canopy of NFL offenses. And it's great if you have them.
Sucks if you have Blaine Gabbert.
So in the obligatory "East-to-West" and "NFC-AFC" order, here's the teams I am crossing of the list. And mind you, for teams NOT on my "no f'ing chance" list, it hardly means I think they have a GOOD chance. They might only be 1%. The following I shall list at 0% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Here's how it'll go with Vick this year. Great game. Shit game. Okay game. Super shit game. ESPN drooling great game. Even shittier game. Injury. Nick Foles. And with a college coach? Please.
The have backed up one real "reach" of a starting QB with Ponder, with another one in Matt Cassel. AP you better run for 3,000 yards, son.
Josh Freeman is averaging nearly 20 picks and 8 fumbles the last two years. And that dick of a coach! The NFL might have to cancel the SB if he ever made it, having to hear this fake tough guy brag about blowing up kneel downs. Oh, and the NFC Championship game at the pirate ship would still be blacked out.
The Cardinals caught lightning-in-a-retread-bottle once already my lifetime with Kurt Warner. And Carson Palmer is no Kurt Warner. Run along now, birdfeeder bird football team.
Sam Bradford, we're waiting. And waiting... and... ah never mind.
MIAMI, NY JETS, BUFFALO
Geezus, fellas. Are you even TRYING! You suck. All of you. Bad enough the rest of the league has to watch Coach Mumbles act like everything he does is some secretive stroke of genius, but it sure would be swell if you gave the Pats at least a WHIFF of in-division pressure. None of you teams even deserve my customized, individual scorn. Just sit in the back of the room and put your heads down on your desk.
The Browns. Oh, sigh... the Browns. They remain the NFL's most distant planet. And like Pluto, they are about to be downgraded to a mere "trans-Newtonian object" once this crook of an owner goes to jail and they have to start all over again.
Nothing says "we won't be good again for decades" like Ebay-ing a game each year to London and spray painting your helmets half gold.
Jake Locker and Christian Ponder are the exact same guy. Exact! NFL starting QB prospects because the "scouts" said they had all the "measurables" leading up to the draft. And like the Vikings, all the Titans need for 9-7 and a wildcard is a trillion rushing yards again from Chris Johnson. (Not likely, once he got paid)
No 350+ lb. coach has ever lost a Super Bowl in one city, then gone to another Super Bowl in a different city in a different conference. Not when the BBQ in that new city is so delicious. Never.
Quickly rivaling the Browns as our most distant NFL planet, where you need the most powerful telescope to even see a glimpse of how and when they might be good. The Rich Gannon team under Gruden, that burped up one last SB appearance with Bill Callahan was a cosmic fluke. Back when the league didn't mandate a superstar QB to have a title shot. The only light in Oakland is the dim, flickering Al Davis cauldron on the concourse.
And finally, because I want to pre-empt many emails about a few other teams, let me just put together my little 1% list of teams with QBs who have been to the League Championship game. Or whose QBs have certainly soured as of late, or perhaps were never that good to begin with. Or just teams that I feel obligated to give them that 1% pop.
CHICAGO, SAN DIEGO, DALLAS.
There. Now I am done.
Who do I like to WIN it all? Another post. Coming later this week.